Gulp. Stan Van Gundy to Detroit.

SVG
Pictured: A brilliant basketball man.

Stan Van Gundy was, to my mind, the best coach available on the market this offseason, and for the last few offseasons frankly. That stance, of course, comes with the caveat that there are many assistant coaches and coaches at different levels of basketball with whom I am unfamiliar and therefore, I exclude from any consideration in the “best coach available” discussion. There may be some diamonds in the rough who need a shot to show how good they can be. But I don’t know enough about the coaching development chain to say much about those guys. Still, SVG has proven himself as a great coach in the NBA.

Van Gundy ought never to have lost his job in the first place, but it’s a superstar league and the Magic wanted to appease Dwight Howard, before realizing how futile a game that really was. SVG has a winning percentage of 64.1% in the regular season over 579 games and he is 9 games over .500 in the post-season (48–39). Winning percentage alone, however, is not the only mark of a great coach. If you need any proof of that, check out Avery Johnson’s career after his Dallas turn, Vinny Del Negro’s run with the Clippers last season, or Scotty Brooks’ campaigns the last few seasons. Talent can overcome imperfect or even downright incompetent coaching, at times. Van Gundy isn’t that sort of coach. He’s exceedingly competent, curious, and supremely adaptable. So the following should hardly be surprising:

Stan Van took two separate and totally different style squads through deep playoff runs, ending in the Conference Finals and NBA Finals, respectively. In Miami, he paired Dwyane Wade’s pell-mell drives to the hoop with a still dominant Shaq’s low-post scoring to reach a top 5 offense and a 7 game conference finals loss to Detroit. It was a distinctly traditional offensive setup, and Van Gundy made it work incredibly well.

Then, from 2008–2011, he helped Dwight Howard reach his peak, which he has still not surpassed or even really approached, with a 4-out spread pick and roll attack which both incorporated the biggest lessons of the modern basketball analytics movement (the importance of spacing, along with the value of the three point shots and dunks) and best catered to the talents of his team. It’s also worth noting that no coach since SVG has been able to get Dwight to buy in to the pick and roll game as thoroughly as he did in Orlando. In 2009, the Magic overachieved in the playoffs, knocking off LeBron’s Cavaliers juggernaut — +8.68 SRS, well ahead of the second best team, the eventual champion Los Angeles Lakers — in the Eastern Conference Finals, only to get beat by that Lakers team in 5 games. It would be easy to be disappointed by the Magic’s performance in that Finals, but really, they shouldn’t have even been in that series at all. Orlando had already overachieved by reaching the Finals. Of course, that’s not the attitude a coach or his team should have in that series, but for fans and media analyzing Van Gundy’s resume, it’s important to note that important context.

So, in short: Detroit has nabbed a great coach. Van Gundy, after being burned by both his former Florida employers and unjustly let go, also managed to negotiate control over Basketball Operations for the Pistons. I don’t know how SVG will do on the management side of things, as there’s no history to go on. Given his understanding of how teams fit together and how to maximize the talents he’s provided, though, I suspect he’ll also do a heck of a job there, as well. He would be hard pressed to do worse than Joe Dumars the last few years.

I see most things in the NBA through the lens of how they will effect my beloved Chicago Bulls. Stan Van Gundy entering the Central Division scares the hell out of me. I’d imagine most fans of other Central Division teams feel likewise, which is as good an indication as any that Detroit has done very well for themselves here. Now it’s time to fire up the trade machine, because there’s almost no way SVG is keeping this trainwreck together next season.

UARPM100 for 13–14 Updated to Reflect Team Strength

Last post, I mentioned that Kevin Durant was the UARPM100 MVP, and I gave a top 10 list of players in Wins Above Replacement as well. After looking through the numbers, something that occurred to me was that the number of total wins under those numbers didn’t sum up to team level wins. That was primarily an effect of including raw per minute plus-minus numbers as part of the UARPM formulation. Basically, good teams had too many wins, and poor teams had too few wins. So I decided to correct that. I adjusted the UARPM100 numbers using a per minute adjustment for each player on the team so that total team plus-minus was equal to team SRS (basically point differential adjusted for strength of schedule) via Basketball-Reference. The final numbers are posted on the UARPM100 page.

The top 10 is basically the same, with Carmelo Anthony jumping into the 8th spot, and DeAndre Jordan sliding to 10th. The total number of wins are reduced across the board, and they are no longer set to above replacement, because I decided it’d be more interesting to just have total wins contributed. You can easily turn wins into Wins per 48 minutes by dividing by minutes played and multiplying by 48. Durant and LeBron were nearly exactly the same in per possession impact by UARPM100, with Durant’s heavier minutes load giving him the edge in wins. Chris Paul also remains the best per-possession player in the league, even after the team adjustment.

Here’s the updated top 20:

RankPlayersMINUARPM100Wins1Kevin Durant31226.720.02LeBron James29026.718.63Kevin Love27966.417.64Stephen Curry28466.117.35Blake Griffin28635.215.86Chris Paul21717.214.77Joakim Noah28204.614.38Carmelo Anthony29824.114.39James Harden27774.514.110DeAndre Jordan28704.213.911Paul George28984.113.912DeMarcus Cousins22985.913.713John Wall29803.513.114LaMarcus Aldridge24994.713.015Kyle Lowry28623.512.616Dwight Howard23964.612.217Goran Dragic26683.611.918Anthony Davis23584.411.719Al Jefferson25533.811.720Serge Ibaka26663.411.6
All in all, this seems like a pretty credible list. For what it’s worth, Rookie of the Year award winner, Michael Carter-Williams produced 6.1 wins under UARPM100, well ahead of runner-up Victor Oladipo who clocked in at 4.7 wins. The voters appear to be doing a pretty good job.