Monthly Archives: October 2013

Projecting the NBA using xWARP: Philadelphia 76ers

Projecting the 2013–14 Sixers is a nightmare. The Philadelphia squad looks, quite clearly, to be tanking the season. Nearly all of the players on their roster are being thrown into roles for which they are terribly ill-suited. Thaddeus Young: Best player on an NBA team? James Anderson: anything more than on an off-the-bench guard? Michael Carter-Williams: starting point-guard in the NBA? These are not questions that any of these players should be asked to answer, but the Sixers aren’t trying to win and here we are.

The trouble is, when projecting future performance in xRAPM, most players tend to occupy similar roles from year to year and thus it’s much more likely that their rating by xRAPM- or any flavor of adjusted-plus minus, for that matter- will look pretty close to the prior year, but when you ask players to do radically more than they have traditionally been asked to do, then their overall impact is very likely to suffer. As a result of this, I would take the win projection that Nathan Walker’s numbers with my minutes estimates produce (shown below) with a giant helping- like a dried up ocean’s worth- of salt. Additionally, the Sixers weird roster construction inevitably throws off what would be more accurate wins projections for the rest of the league. As a result, at the end of all my projections, I will probably write a post with my own subjective- but informed by the stats — guesses as to where teams will come out in terms of records next year. In any event, what do the (probably very wrong) numbers look like?

After adjusting for the wider league context, the Sixers’ projected Net Rating is -3.22, rather than the -2.11 shown above. A -3.22 Net Rating results in a projected 32 win team. Frankly, I would be shocked if the Sixers were able to win even half that many games. It seems that Vegas agrees with my subjective assessment, as the Over/Under for this year’s Philly squad is set at 16.5 wins.

The reason the Sixers rate out so well in this analysis is that they have a team full of guys that in their prior, less demanding roles were fully capable of being replacement level or above. These Sixers have very few players who would have projected as sub-replacement level, had they stayed in their prior roles, and their rookies, Michael Carter-Williams and Nerlens Noel- both of whom will likely be expected to play heavy minutes — actually project to be near average level players. Oh, and Thad Young, as it turns out, is pretty darn good, though certainly not someone you’d want as your best player. It’s worth watching whether xRAPM’s relative love for this Sixers team is as off as Vegas, the rest of the basketball-watching world, and I, subjectively, think it is. I’ll also be watching to see if the Sixers trade Thaddeus Young, in order to go with the full-on, totally unabashed tank.

Projecting the NBA using xWARP: Portland Trailblazers

The Portland Trailblazers got better this summer. They added a solid defensive center to pair with LaMarcus Aldridge, in Robin Lopez. They snagged a talented, if unproductive, young big man to back up Aldridge, in Thomas Robinson and they grabbed solid swingman Dorell Wright. Finally, they drafted C.J. McCollum and signed Mo Williams- because they want to have ALL of the small combo guardy point guards. Basically, the Blazers improved their bench, which was terrible, to the point where it is downright serviceable now. How good should we expect the Blazers to be next year, then, based on the Walker numbers and my minutes estimates?

Portland’s projected Net Rating, adjusted for context, is -1.39, which would make them a 37 win team. This projection would place them at 11th in the Western Conference, though the difference between Portland’s projected 37 wins and the 42 projected wins of the 7th and 8th rated teams is marginal, so Portland’s improved bench has put them firmly on the Western conference’s playoff bubble. It will be interesting to see whether they can make it in to the postseason, and whether merely qualifying for late April play will be enough to satisfy LaMarcus Aldridge’s allegedly professed desire to play for a better team.

Speaking of Aldridge, he projects, unsurprisingly, to be the Blazers’ best player, by far. Dame Lillard should continue to be quite solid as a second year player. C.J. McCollum, Mo Williams, and Thomas Robinson — mentioned earlier — all project to be replacement level or worse, although they will still be an improvement over last year’s downright terrible bench crew. Robin Lopez should be very helpful. I’ve projected him for only 1900 minutes, but really, the Blazers ought to play him more. He’s much better than any other option they have at center. It’s a possibility that playing a 7 footer too many minutes could be dangerous for health reasons- just ask Joakim Noah’s busted up feet — but Lopez played over 2100 minutes last year with no problems. He could certainly stand to play a few more minutes per game over the 26 minutes a night he played last season. I’d recommend that he play 30 minutes a night. It might only change their projection by one win over the course of the 82 game season, but given that these Blazers are right on the bubble of the playoffs, one extra win could be hugely important.

The Blazers also have to hope that the talent that made Thomas Robinson a top 5 draft pick shows out next year and his projected xRAPM of -2.3 is an underestimate of what he’ll produce for Portland next year. Portland’s probably not the best bet to make the playoffs next year, but there’s reason for hope and maybe that’s enough. What do you think, Blazers fans?

Image via Wikimedia Commons.

Projecting the NBA using xWARP: Milwaukee Bucks

The Milwaukee Bucks are, frankly, an oddly constructed team. They have too many centers with similar skill sets and the talent to demand minutes and too few answers on the wing. They also made a series of strange decisions in the offseason. This summer, the Bucks swapped Monta Ellis for OJ Mayo in free agency- a downgrade, however slight- and traded Brandon Jennings for Brandon Knight- a larger drop in talent. In addition, the Bucks went out and gave Zaza Pachulia a sizeable contract, despite the fact that they had several perfectly capable backup centers behind franchise center, Larry Sanders, including Ekpe Udoh and Gustavo Ayon. As a result of that contract, Ayon was let go and the Atlanta Hawks jumped at the opportunity to grab a player of similar impact to Zaza for a much cheaper price. It was a really strange move, in a summer full of them. The Bucks also added another volume per minute shot taker in Gary Neal, though his overall impact has traditionally been lacking. They also lost Mike Dunleavy Jr. and J.J. Redick in free agency to the greener pastures of Chicago and Los Angeles, respectively- though in the case of Redick they were at least able to turn it into a sign and trade and get a couple of second round picks. The Bucks also, weirdly, traded a helpful wing stopper on a cheapo contract, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, to Sacramento for a couple second round picks. Where do the numbers, courtesy of Nathan Walker and my own minutes projections, say the Bucks’ confusing offseason has left them?

After adjusting for the wider league context, the Bucks’ team Net Rating per game is -3, which translates to a roughly 33 win team. The Bucks and their management, perpetually chasing that 8th seed, will no doubt be disappointed if they only win 33 games this year. On the plus side, if they do land in the lottery, this season would provide them an opportunity to find an actual difference maker in the vaunted 2014 draft who could, when paired with Larry Sanders’s dynamite defense, propel them out of the muck of the Eastern Conference’s playoff-lottery bubble.

As far as potential bright spots go for this likely lottery club, the Bucks will get another year of Sanders blocking or intimidating everyone who dares enter the lane against him and rookie Nate Wolters should be a pretty solid rookie, per minute, according the the Hickory High projections. If the Bucks play Wolters more minutes than I’ve projected for him, they may be helped a bit, as he looks to be more likely to help matters than, say, Gary Neal. In addition, Ersan Ilyasova is awesome and more people show know that. Three point shooting bigs who can also rebound well are very rare indeed. Three point shooting bigs who can rebound well AND look just like James Franco? Well, there’s only one of those and that’s our man Ersan. Enjoy and appreciate him, you guys.

Three Players Ready To Make A Huge Jump With Increased Minutes

The following is a sponsored post from Fanduel.com.

With just five players on the court at all times for each team, perhaps the toughest thing to predict will be how a player will handle a huge increase in minutes. As the 2013–2014 season approaches, both fans of specific teams and fantasy basketball owners are trying to determine who might be ready to turn the corner. According to statistics, new teammates and a better opportunity, here are three players ready to make a leap.

Andre Drummond

No one has ever doubted that Andre Drummond is one of the most gifted basketball talents to come along in quite some time, but there were some intangible question marks surrounding the rookie last season. Fantasy basketball owners were scared off by his perceptions about his work ethic, his toughness and his lack of a shooting touch. He still can’t make free throws, but his value in limited action last season was superb. If the Pistons really want to make the playoffs, Drummond will have to play more than 20 minutes a game. If he can keep up his 21.6 PER with more minutes, it could be a great sophomore season for the big man.

Jimmy Butler

Butler is the perfect example of the new age 3 and D type of player ever NBA team is looking for. He can knock down the 3-point shot (especially from the corner), and he is an excellent defender at multiple positions. He and Luol Deng can be matchup nightmares for opposing teams, especially as they play together more often in 2013–2014. Year two he made a pretty big leap, but now that he will likely start the majority of the games this season, he could be ready to fully emerge as a true talent.

Eric Bledsoe

Most people have already counted out the Phoenix Suns this season, and on paper, they appear to just not have enough talent for the playoffs. However, one bright spot for them heading into the season is their new point guard Eric Bledsoe. After being stuck in the shadows of Chris Paul in Los Angeles, the athletic point guard gets a chance to play some major minutes for a rebuilding club. He is coming off an extremely efficient season, despite hovering around just 20 minutes a game. Expect outstanding offensive and defensive numbers out of him in fantasy basketball this season.