After running the team win projections using Nathan Walker’s projected xRAPM numbers, I decided to try a different method for projecting things. I blended a number of plus-minus based advanced stats: xRAPM, RAPM, ezPM, Estimated Impact, ASPM, and IPV, then I added an aging curve. I also added Evan Zamir’s work on home court advantage with a mean regression factor added in. I then ran the relative net ratings of all the team’s through all of their schedules with their HCAs added in. I also adjusted for the Suns’ trade of Marcin Gortat to the Wizards. The results are as follows:
TeamWinsMiami Heat59Houston Rockets56San Antonio Spurs56L.A. Clippers54Brooklyn Nets53Chicago Bulls53Indiana Pacers53Oklahoma City Thunder53Memphis Grizzlies52Golden State Warriors46Denver Nuggets45New York Knicks45Atlanta Hawks44Dallas Mavs43Toronto Raptors40Cleveland Cavs39Minnesota T-Wolves38Portland Blazers38Detroit Pistons36Milwaukee Bucks35New Orleans Pelicans35Utah Jazz35Washington Wizards35Charlotte Bobcats30Sacramento Kings30Boston Celtics29L.A. Lakers28Orlando Magic25Philadelphia Sixers23Phoenix Suns22
The results aren’t terribly different from what I had previously projected, which should make sense as the scale is roughly the same, and the minutes projections are basically the same, except for adjustments for trades. The Suns dumping of Gortat apparently has them in poll position in the Riggin for Wiggins sweepstakes.